Every New Year's we look back or look ahead. I tried it myself and I can't say I was particularly thrilled by any defining moments knocking out what's on tap for next year. Things sucked for most of us and the world. On the plus side Obama got elected and won a Nobel Prize for getting elected, so he had a good year, while for the rest of us cheaper Blue-ray players are now an option.

Wars And The Economy


Next year we could get lucky, but the rules of the game haven't changed enough to make any kind of recovery happen soon. War in Iraq, War in Afghanistan, and more Terror. Any correlation there for our politicians? Don't think they see it yet. And if there's no peace recovery, economic recovery isn't likely either. Any thinkers or tinkerers in Washington see that? When you spend all your money on war and bailing out bankers and banks and Wall Street and Detroit, there's not much left in the pot for Main Street except for potholes. In the meantime all you guys without a paycheck, put on your best torn T-shirt and get into construction before everybody else figures out it's the only real Stimulus we'll get in 2010.

H1N1 Swine Flu

Other big stories weren't good news either. H1N1 Swine Flu did make a two stage attack, as I forecast on NewsHammer months before anyone else did. Now it's over 12,000 dead says the WHO, but the media after going whole hog on the story, are now critical of a massive over-response to a pandemic that missed the boat.

Sorry, it's not over yet. Viruses mutate and this one has developed into several strains. Ordinarily those who got their shots based on the initial virus type or who caught an airborne version of it already, will largely be protected from the new strains. Those still at risk will not have had either, and that means most people everywhere. As it looks like a weak pandemic now, the demand for inoculations is way down, with people ignoring or postponing a shot.

This is an iffy choice that could backfire. Getting the shot and so playing it safe, is the way to go for most of us. The problem is like with all vaccines, a risk of side-effects. The worst case is autism in young children, still debated as a maybe disease from vaccines, and Guillaume Barré syndrome, a dangerous neurological disease that can leave children and adults permanently damaged. A few cases have been reported among many who have had the new H1N1 vaccine. But over the years other flu shots have been blamed for thousands of cases of this otherwise rare neurological disease. Anyone already very sick or immune compromised, could die of complications.

With the heat off for now, it's a good time to talk to your doctor on whether or not to get a shot. It's still possible we could see a million or more dead in countries ill-prepared for another resurgence of H1N1.

Michael Jackson: Dead Like Elvis

The shock of Michael Jackson's death also took our breath away. With a media life of its own, as reported and forecast in NewsHammer, it rivaled and then eclipsed the media hounds hunt for Wacko Jacko, the child molester who never was. A sad comment on them and us, being sucked in for years by bloodthirsty journalism out for a buck. The orgy of how this could have happened, never looked far enough back into how it did happen, just catching the endless parade of weird rumors, alibis and genuine worldwide remorse. Journalists should have fried some of their own for Michael's premature death as well as the standup comics who pulled out their knives nightly for our Caesar of Pop, sorry King of.

Google And The Death Of Newspapers

Another big story on NewsHammer this year still revving up slowly in the press, that newspapers and magazines are being Googled to death. Bleeding slowly at first I guess they didn't notice. Now hemorrhaging they're talking of fighting back, Murdock & Co. Why here's the answer: We'll charge the freeloading downloading bastards! Wrong again. We'll sell our stuff on Kindle! Sure you will. Who's gonna pay though for dull and boring rubber-necking journalism, especially from Iowa if you're in Colorado?

Magazines and newspapers wrecked their future long ago, when they raised prices up and up instead of getting more readers and more from advertisers, and then cut back on journalists and meaningful coverage from City Hall, to city, town and country, while boiling down Culture to gizmos and fashion statements. To relying on the wire services for big stories and forgetting they were the conscience of their town and nation. Now a paper from City X is largely the same paper from City Y and Z. Try selling that. Try selling bloated or useless magazines or cut to the bone crap sheets. It looks like half of all newspapers and magazines today will fail in the next 10 years, only the best surviving and those with a niche somewhere in OpraLand and GossipWorld.

This is also Google's fault as I said this year in 2 stories on NewsHammer, but Google, the Gentle Giant of Publishing, crushes every little thing as it goes for a walk to find some more money. Can't see what's going under its footprint even when it bothers to look.

Well Google is not some mad post apocalyptic monster out to destroy everything, but still we're getting what's good for Google must be good for everyone else outside of GogglePlex. Shades of the old GM philosophy that killed streetcars, trains and the electric car, with their hands out now for more government money for GM's poor starving brother, GMAC.

Why do the Feds listen to these guys in suits? Hey Buddy, can you spare a Billion? Might as well give it to winos or druggies and street people. At least they'd spend it or give it away and provide some real Economic Stimulus.

Will Google be taking corporate welfare handouts one of these days? Well, if it's not blushing now as it steamrolls over journalism and publishing, what will stop it? Not that Google is mainly to blame. By dominating web advertising Google only collects all the loose change we click into big bucks for them without writing one word of copy. Come on Google, play fair, Do No Evil. Rewrite the AdSense rules on web ads and who gets what and how, charging advertisers for display ads and not just click-throughs and share all the revenue with your publishers as the real solution. Google could make even more money this way, but we'll save journalism, get more jobs, more people working again like the good old days before these guys made billions putting Google together for fun in a garage on pizza and credit cards.

Will they? No, Google won't even answer an email, never mind coming to the rescue of an industry they're nailing into a coffin. Can't you hear 2009 scratching the lid to get out and live again! Hey Google! Write home before your old lady croaks and you're up shit creek.

There were other big stories in 2009 like Global Warming, but politicians think it can wait. We're all too busy with the future, Googling for the Apple Tablet and other wonders soon to drive us crazy everyday, worrying about Tiger Woods ever golfing again and Charlie Sheen overdosing on his own persona in Two and a Half Men. How could they do that when they were so cool? This is the world that matters, I keep forgetting. Oh well there's 2010 and parties tonight. Happy New Year!

--Alan Gillis

The future of Newspapers? The Newseum

After writing the March 13th 2009 NewsHammer story, "Google And The Death Of Newspapers", I sent Google an email. How about doing something to help, like change AdSense? No reply.

Another thing, the funny thing about email. With snail mail you usually get a reply.

With Google itself concerned about the fate of newspapers, with Eric Schmidt, Google's Chief Exec delivering a speech in San Diego April 8th 2009 to the Newspaper Association of America's annual convention, I thought there would be some interest in changing Google AdSense to help papers and magazines survive.

The email went out to the Manager of AdSense April 9, 2009 [auto reply same day, ref #423012072] also asking AdSense that my email be CC'd to Eric Schmidt.

The way AdSense works now is Google only pays for click-throughs on their Ads by Google and no matter how many people see these ads on websites, the publishers, the news and magazine sites, the bloggers and their blogs, wind up hosting millions of Google ads for nickels and dimes. Since Google is Number One by far as ad content provider right across the web, nearly all websites are operating at a loss including big publishers. OK, not all Google's fault.

The print publishers have seen their online readership go up and their print sales go down. That's the dilemma and Google's not doing anything about it. Nearly all print publishers have so far been subsidizing their online editions, but as their print editions suffer, they cut staff and cut back on their websites, falling into a spiral that ultimately leads to bankruptcy and more and more often the death of both print and online editions.

With Google AdSense dominating advertising, there's little competition. Google advertisers enjoy a free ride with millions of free website billboards everywhere, so how can other ad content providers beat the Google system? Most don't. They follow Google's lead and still have trouble staying alive. A few speciality ad brokers offer better deals to some publishers who corner a market like travel sites, but there's still not a lot of return.

What's Google's answer? No answer. Google is the new Space Age Teflon of web publishing. No criticism can stick. The future of newspapers for Google? Maybe [pic bottom left] a fashion statement.



As publishers have been finding out it's a little late to fight back. Only a few have been able to charge online readers for exclusive stories like the Wall Street Journal. Others are thinking about charging like Murdoch's chain of newspapers and some big players think that Amazon's new larger format Kindle DX [CNET Video above] might be a way to get people to buy online newspapers like The New York Times, that too makes little money online even though it offers cheap subscriptions that include exclusive articles.

Will Amazon's Kindle save the publishers? Not likely as publishers will be competing with their own print editions for readership. Even if Kindle editions are cheaper, people like the print editions better if they have to pay. We already have such a big electronic culture that print is also the last refuge for those who like to read happily wherever and whenever without toting around another expensive gadget they have to babysit.

The New York Times has figured this out and will only offer Kindle editions outside of their print distribution zone. So it should attract some new readers to NYT and its Boston Globe in on the Kindle deal, but near death if it doesn't work. If Kindle lights a fire, local newspaper publishers without a national presence are still out of luck. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has folded already but hopes to make it on its own online with a staff of 25, down from 165.

There's more of a chance with Kindle for textbook publishers who are faced with very high costs they pass on to students and academics. Portability makes sense here as a pound of Kindle can deliver a ton of textbooks you don't have to cart around campus. Maybe lower prices like with other online books will make the big difference, but if they aren't cheap enough, people will still buy the print editions and students the used copies they can find. Some textbook publishers have signed up with Kindle.

But that doesn't solve the financial mess for newspapers and magazines. Will Google come to their rescue or just watch them fail and blame market forces that Google more or less controls?

What about it Google? Send me an email Eric and I'll publish it here.

And for the record I'm not the only one blaming Google for the failure of the industry and all the job losses including journalists being hung out to dry.

"Execs reveal why newspapers don't block Google" on CNET News May 7th 2009:


To hear the poobahs of traditional media tell it, Google is to print media what global warming is to the polar caps. At many once-stalwart print publications, profits are melting away. . . .

It's quite another Google marketing strategy. You clip content from newspapers and other sites and then sell associated ads without sharing revenue with the content providers. Even the biggest publishers are squawking like Jim Spanfeller, CEO of Forbes.com. He claims Google "makes roughly $60 million a year directing folks" to Forbes.com.

But publishers aren't so far taking any action. They need Google's links back to their sites, though claiming too that when Google posts a blurb, many readers don't bother with the full articles on their sites, satisfied with a few nuts and bolts delivered by Google.

Link to this Google: "The entire web publishing industry is helpless in the face of the Google juggernaut."

Not long ago before the catastrophic Google on the wall, the industry financed one of the great new museums of the world, to itself, the Newseum in Washington DC. Hope it doesn't turn out to be the ironic but on deadline $450M News Mausoleum.

--Alan Gillis

The other day The New York Times ran a big story on the demise of newspapers across America. Most towns used to have at least two competing papers and now the trend is down to one or maybe none. The recent disappearance of the Rocky Mountain News in Denver is a painful reminder of how even an excellent daily through no apparent fault of its own can die. Easy to blame this on the recession, fewer advertisers, fewer copies sold, less money.

Though there are other factors that are endangering not only newspapers but journalism. If the Internet has had a powerful effect with many people dropping their newspaper habit for free online editions and newsreaders pumping out headlines on their desktops, one of the key problems has been in the industry itself, the massive expansion of newspaper syndicates buying up their competition and expanding ownership like a drugstore chain, then homogenizing their acquisitions to make them fit in with their chain mentality, from reformatting them to look alike, to cutting back on local and national reporting for cheaper wire service copy they paste in.

Even so the syndicates got away with it and went even further, sometimes buying up a town's two or more papers and then merging staffs and centralizing operations in one building, producing two or more lackluster versions of the same paper, with reduced costs and fewer reporters and support staff to pay, ergo more money to make.

The end of this newspaper acquisitions bubble has arrived. Because of the high costs of buying up otherwise successful and profitable papers some chains and their papers are faced with a debt load that is leading them into the red. The Tribune Company chain has already gone into bankrupcy as well as other major holding companies, leaving the future of many papers in doubt. A number of large papers are up for sale. All rather reminiscent of Detroit's long march in buying up all its smaller competitors and having cornered the market, why worry about what people want? We give them what we want. Though many bought-up papers were good and would have been financially sound on their own if they hadn't been acquired.

If Japan came to the rescue of the American car buyers with better and cheaper cars, still the Big Three weren't impressed.

But Japan is hardly going to drop a compact bombshell into the American newspaper market. We're on our own and it doesn't look good.

Even the biggest and most successful chains and papers are cutting back drastically, laying off more and more reporters and staff like the McClatchy chain recently, perhaps the best of the lot, run by newspapermen and women, not just by accountants. Other chains have cut staff even more brutally in an effort to stay alive. Other papers are simply going out of business, axed by chains as so much dead wood. Some Independents are folding too, no longer able to make it on their own with dwindling revenue and some even without a debt load.

Times are remarkably tough. Even big sucessful papers like The Los Angeles Times have cut back their newsroom staffs to half of what they were a few years ago. It's the slow death of what has been called the Fourth Estate, the major force protecting society, the First Estate being us, to counter the power of the other two Estates, now largely beaten by the Press, the Church and the Nobles, except now we have Big Money instead of the nobility practising Feudalism. Without any critical oversight, new Estates like big government and big business run roughshod over the public interest. Would Watergate have broken without some serious and powerful journalism? Would Bush Administration failures have been tackled without some heavy-hitters in the media? Though the fear factor was great enough to silence or muzzle many papers and TV News outlets. We'll probably hear a lot more when journalists screw up their courage to write some history books on the Age of Terror in America.

Some progressive Darwinian capitalists will say that other news organizations will rise to take up the slack as newspapers fail. There's TV journalism and more news on the Internet. Yeah but there are still fewer journalists working and the local 6 0'clock news usually is about as important as the big fire on Maple Street or the car crash in a feeder lane into town. What goes on in City Hall or at the big plant in town, unless some shooter goes in, isn't going to make any airtime.

Still we've got the big network news and CNN, but they don't cover what these disappearing papers do, your local news, nor do they go after the big news stories like newspaper journalists do. It's the soundbite, the talking heads, the usual bull delivered by PR people that happens so fast, TV journalists let it pass without comment or follow-up questions or follow-up stories. No time for all of that. No time to think and write. Ad lib it and move on to the next story. Though the Big Networks still have their in depth coverage here and there and some dedicated newsmagazines like CBS 60 Minutes that do excellent work. A drop in the bucket of airtime though. The promise of CNN as a dedicated news channel hasn't come through either. It's more towards American info-entertainment than hard hitting news or world news. You get bludgeoned with stories too, out of proportion to their value, like hours and hours daily for 2 years of OJ Simpson.

The Internet is nowhere near to picking up the slack either. When these newspapers fail, so do their online editions like the Rocky Mountain News. As The New York Times says no one has been able to figure out how to keep a digital edition going with the poor revenues it generates. People don't like to pay user fees as they already are burning money with Internet connections and paper and ink costs. The hassle factor of having to live on less and work harder for those still above water is another even bigger handicap. Internet News apart from a few success stories like The Huffington Post, follows the newspaper failures, fewer and fewer news sources and fewer journalists.

Bloggers generally haven't taken up the call either for serious journalism. Opinionizing the news is fine and we certainly need more insightful commentary, much more than an Editorial page covering one or two hot issues. In fact we hope journalists who are out of work will take up blogging, but you can't really expect many to do that when they need to pay bills and don't have an organization to back them up, whether it's support staff like newsroom colleagues they can count on for input and research and editing or friendly advice or coffee handy or most of all when you're blogging, a webmaster who handles all the glitches in software and an art department that pastes it all together and the sales people who find the money. Then how can you operate not having the credentials to call up Mr Big on some story or other and a legal department to back up your story when it gets threatened by Mr Big's lawyers?

Bloggers don't have the resources and then most don't have a feeling for journalism or the ethics involved. Being small scale pundits who cross thresholds of boredom and libel, they're generally immune and so keep on badgering or going on pointless rants thinking they're doing great. But ultra-tabloid reporting goes nowhere when you don't have facts to go on. Finally you can't believe the writing which usually isn't good anyway. A BA in English might be a good idea like journalists usually have or at least have something to contribute. Though if you scan the Net with a passion you can find a lot of good work buried under all the chatter, like 2 Blowhards.

As a blogger and journalist, I do think there are ways out of this mess. Thing is people don't like making changes until it's about too late, like Detroit.

The big chains should sell off some of their papers instead of cutting staff further. If it's not a sellers' market, well a lot of papers have dedicated staff who would if they could buy out their owners as a collective. Why is this kind of socialism still a dirty word in America, when Obama has already made it acceptable with government bailouts on Wall Street and in Detroit?

As for me I love a good newspaper, but I don't like wading through a mountain of newsprint to get to a story buried in ads and flyers. I don't like the smudgy ink and the acid smell which gets worse as they yellow. I don't like all the destruction of trees and waste of paper. Smaller dailies still in business could maybe publish fewer editions, say thrice weekly or less. Spend more time researching and writing local and national stories. Maybe analyzing the news would be the big seller, instead of rewrites of press releases or the same wire service copy published everywhere.

More investigative journalism, more aggressive action on important stories. Sounds like the economics wouldn't work, but they could if given the chance. Some people like me would pay more for a glossy paper that wasn't boring and a futile waste of a Saturday afternoon, usually the best newspaper day of the week.

But if some papers do change not only their style but substance, most look like failing because they or their owners won't change. The chance of purely online papers making a success of themselves is still dicey too. For this you've got to blame the major ad content providers like Google AdSense, that allows their ad clients massive free exposure on other peoples' websites, only charging them for click-throughs and only paying a percentage of that to the content providers, the bloggers, magazines and papers online.

Google puts up a $20 million prize for the first private company landing on the moon, but freezes out the people who make the Internet work. Are you listening Google? We love you but what about the people going out of business and the people who put you in business?